Are You Good at Accessing Risks

In the US, and I suspect the west, our lifespans have steadily increased over the last century. In 1900 typical age that white men and women lived to was 47–49 and black Americans sadly lived to 33–34 on average. (Reference at the bottom). By 2000 we were 75–80 and 68–75 respectfully.

That is one hell of an improvement.

It is easy to conclude that in the US the chance of dying prematurely has been reduced significantly. BUT something else is looming.

We have not improved our surroundings. That is going to be the next hurdle that we must improve.

So let us define surroundings.

From Wikipedia,

“Surroundings are the area around a given physical or geographical point or place. The exact definition depends on the field. Surroundings can also be used in geography and mathematics, as well as philosophy, with the literal or metaphorically extended definition.”

We have become great at identifying threats that can lead to premature death(i.e. cancer, smoking, etc.). What we do a terrible job of is being able to estimate the likelihood and severity. Let us talk about those two.

A great example of estimating poorly is Covid vaccines. Ohhhh no he went there.

It is amazing to me how many seemingly intelligent people have decided that they will not take the vaccine. Even medical people!!! They are easy to quote some obscure website that tells them a lot of people have died from the vaccine. Where are the numbers of these vast people? They answer that the media is hiding them. BUT they seem to know them.


When I ask if they were vaccinated when they were children, 100% of them say yes, BUT immediately tell me that this vaccine is different. AND amazingly they did not have any issues that they can remember with the vaccines they took when they were children. NOR did they or their children ever get autism…. AMAZING!!!!

AND some want to test my arm to see if a magnet will get attracted to it…

Then they move on to how quickly the vaccine was developed. According to them, it should have taken years. The process normally does take years BUT this epidemic was not an ordinary situation. With millions of lives at stake, 100,000+ people volunteered to be guinea pigs and have the vaccine tested on them. AND let us not forget the number of people and companies that worked on it AND billions of dollars our government spend to develop it and pay for it.

Even today the severity of the people who have been vaccinated and get covid delta variant is a lot less than someone who has not been vaccinated. 99.5% of people in hospitals that get Covid have not had the vaccine. Our medical wards are getting filled up again.

Then we talk about the likelihood. They think because they have not gotten it so far that they have magical powers and can resist it. That is why even though I am vaccinated still put on a mask when I go inside stores. I don’t want their magical germs on me.

People that will not take the vaccine are turning a molehill into a mountain. AND it is for mistaken political reasons instead of health reasons.

One of the dumbest political moves that the previous administration made last year was to not tackle the epidemic straight on aggressively, instead of denying it, AND claim the success of the vaccine development. If Trump had done that, no matter the hate towards him, he would have been re-elected. Instead, they handled it horrible and politicians even told people not to get vaccinated because this pandemic was just like the flu. DUMB!!!!

They figured that the severity and likelihood were low BUT judging by the 600,000+ people who have died their assessment was horribly wrong. Of course, they believe those numbers were inflated by the hospitals.

It is the surroundings that are our next frontier.




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Robert Trajkovski

Robert Trajkovski

I have led people and projects in Steel/ Power, Refining, Chemicals, Industrial Gasses, Software, Consulting and Academia. I have instructed 73+ courses.